Research That Goes Deeper

Deep Dive Analysis

We dig into the stories behind the headlines. These aren't surface-level takes—they're the kind of analysis that helps you understand why markets move and what might come next.

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The topics our research team obsesses over

Growth Stories

Where's the next opportunity? We hunt for it.

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Separating real shifts from noise and hype

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When to lean in, when to step back

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Under the hood of specific industries

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What worked, what didn't, and why

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Latest Analysis

Our most recent deep dives into what's moving markets

Emerging Markets cityscape Featured
Growth Markets Dec 15, 2025

Emerging Markets in 2025: Where the Smart Money's Looking

Southeast Asia, Latin America, India—they're not all created equal. We break down which regions offer real opportunity and which come with catches.

15 min read
Wind turbines renewable energy Trending
Energy Sector Dec 12, 2025

Clean Energy: Beyond the Headlines

Solar stocks got hammered in 2024. Hydrogen is years away from profitability. So where should clean-energy believers actually put their money?

18 min read
Financial charts and data Important
Economic Analysis Dec 10, 2025

Inflation: Tamed or Just Resting?

Central banks declared victory, markets believed them. But is inflation really beaten? We look at what the data says—and what history warns us about.

12 min read
Artificial Intelligence technology Hot Topic
Technology Dec 8, 2025

AI Investing: Separating Hype from Opportunity

Everyone's talking AI. Valuations are stretched. But somewhere in the frenzy are companies that will actually make money. Here's how we're thinking about it.

20 min read
Stock market trading Analysis
Fixed Income Dec 5, 2025

Bonds Are Back: Making Sense of the New Landscape

After years of near-zero yields, bonds finally pay something. But higher rates mean price risk. We explore how to play the fixed income comeback.

14 min read
Commercial buildings skyline Sector Focus
Real Estate Dec 1, 2025

Commercial Real Estate: Crisis or Opportunity?

Office buildings sit half-empty. Headlines scream doom. But real estate is local and nuanced. We sort the distressed from the overlooked.

16 min read

How We Work

No black boxes here—this is how our analysis gets made

01

Gather the Data

We pull from public filings, market feeds, industry reports, and primary research. If we can't verify it, we don't use it.

02

Crunch the Numbers

Statistical models, valuation frameworks, scenario analysis. We let the math speak before we add interpretation.

03

Challenge It

Our analysts question each other's work. What's the bear case? What are we missing? Good analysis survives scrutiny.

04

Write It Up

Clear conclusions, honest about uncertainty, practical for real decisions. No weasel words, no hedge-everything qualifiers.

The Big Picture

See What's Coming

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Quick Takes

Headlines from our latest research

Southeast Asia Leading EM

Vietnam and Indonesia are pulling ahead. 7.2% GDP growth projected for 2025. China's loss is their gain.

Growth

Clean Energy Momentum

35% year-over-year investment growth. Solar costs keep dropping. The transition is speeding up, not slowing down.

Trending

Rate Cuts on the Horizon

Central banks eyeing H2 2025 for easing. If they follow through, bonds and rate-sensitive stocks could run.

Important

AI Rotation Coming

The "everything AI" trade is maturing. Expect money to flow from hype stocks to companies with actual earnings.

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Emerging Markets
Growth Markets December 15, 2025 15 min read

Emerging Markets in 2025: Where the Smart Money's Looking

The Quick Take

Emerging markets are back on people's radars. Young populations, rising middle classes, and supply chains shifting away from China—the structural story is solid. But not all EMs are created equal, and the risks are real. Here's where we see opportunity and where we'd be careful.

The Regions Worth Watching

Southeast Asia

Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines—these countries are catching what's leaving China. Vietnam's on track for 6.5% growth in 2025. It's got the young workforce, the improving infrastructure, and the manufacturing know-how. Indonesia's domestic market is massive. Not everything will work, but the tailwinds are real.

Latin America

Mexico's in a sweet spot—close to the US, building factories as companies nearshore. Brazil's still commodity-dependent and politically messy, but the resources are there. These aren't set-and-forget markets; you need to pay attention.

India

The biggest story might be India. 7%+ growth, a billion consumers, and a government actually pushing reforms. The Nifty isn't cheap anymore, but the long-term case is hard to ignore. Think decades, not quarters.

The Stuff That Can Go Wrong

  • Currency swings: When the dollar strengthens, EM currencies often get crushed. It's happened before and it'll happen again.
  • Politics: US-China tensions reshape trade flows. Elections in major EMs can bring policy U-turns.
  • Debt hangovers: Some countries borrowed heavily during COVID. Those chickens come home eventually.
  • Liquidity: When sentiment sours, money leaves EM fast. Getting out can be harder than getting in.

How We'd Play It

We like selective exposure. A broad EM ETF for the base, with extra weight to India and Southeast Asia. Consider currency-hedged funds if you're putting serious money to work. And don't put everything in at once—EM can be volatile, so spread your entries.

Bottom Line

  • Southeast Asia has the best risk/reward right now
  • India's expensive but the story's compelling
  • Think about hedging currency if you're going big
  • Spread across regions—don't put all eggs in one basket
1 / 6
Energy Transition
Energy Sector December 12, 2025 18 min read

Clean Energy: Beyond the Headlines

The Quick Take

Clean energy stocks got hammered in 2024. Interest rates hurt project economics, supply chains were a mess, and the hype got ahead of the fundamentals. But here's the thing: the transition itself didn't slow down. Solar got even cheaper. Wind kept building. The question isn't if—it's where to invest.

What's Actually Happening

Solar and Wind

Solar costs dropped 90% in a decade. That's not a typo. It's now the cheapest way to generate electricity in most of the world—no subsidies needed. Wind economics keep improving too, especially offshore where the turbines keep getting bigger and more efficient.

Energy Storage

This is where the action is. Batteries solve renewables' biggest problem—intermittency. Lithium-ion costs have fallen 97% since 1991. The next frontier is solid-state and alternative chemistries. Whoever cracks grid-scale storage affordably wins big.

Hydrogen

Green hydrogen is real, but it's early. We're talking years before it's economically viable at scale. The play here is positioning for the long term—companies building electrolyzer capacity and hydrogen infrastructure. Patience required.

Where to Look

  • Renewable developers: Companies with existing projects generating cash, not just promises
  • Grid infrastructure: The grid needs massive upgrades to handle renewables. Boring but necessary.
  • Battery makers and materials: From cell manufacturers to lithium miners—be selective, not everything works
  • Efficiency plays: Companies reducing energy demand are part of this too

The Catches

Higher rates hurt project financing—that's real. Permitting is slow almost everywhere. China dominates solar supply chains. And policy can shift (though the IRA gives US projects unusual long-term visibility). Pick companies with solid balance sheets that can weather rough patches.

Bottom Line

  • Clean energy economics now work without subsidies
  • Storage is the highest-growth segment
  • US policy provides unusual visibility through the IRA
  • Focus on cash-generating businesses, not just stories
2 / 6
Inflation Analysis
Economic Analysis December 10, 2025 12 min read

Inflation: Tamed or Just Resting?

The Quick Take

Central banks are taking victory laps. Markets believe them. But is inflation actually beaten? History says the last mile is the hardest. Services inflation is sticky. Wage growth hasn't fully cooled. We're not saying panic—we're saying pay attention.

Where We Are Now

The Developed World

US inflation is in the 3-4% range—better than 9%, but not the Fed's 2% target. The goods deflation helped. Services? Still running hot. Europe's in a similar spot. Japan's actually got some inflation for the first time in decades, which they're weirdly happy about.

Emerging Markets

All over the map. Latin America hiked aggressively and is now cutting—Brazil's real rates are still high. Asia mostly dodged the worst of it. Turkey and Argentina are their own disasters.

What Central Banks Are Doing

The Fed's playing it close to the vest—"data dependent" means they'll cut when they're sure, not before. Markets are pricing in cuts for 2025. If inflation surprises to the upside? Those expectations get repriced fast. The ECB and Bank of England are watching the same playbook.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

  • Bond duration: Be moderate. Too long and you're exposed if rates stay higher. Too short and you miss the eventual rally.
  • TIPS/linkers: Actual inflation protection. Not exciting, but that's the point.
  • Real stuff: Property, infrastructure—assets that can pass through higher prices
  • Stock selection: Companies that can raise prices without losing customers

Three Scenarios

Most likely (60%): Inflation grinds down to 2-3% by late 2025. Rates fall gently. Everyone relaxes.

Sticky (25%): Services inflation stays stubborn. Rates stay higher longer. Bond losses continue.

Recession (15%): Something breaks. Economy slows sharply. Inflation drops fast—but so does everything else.

Bottom Line

  • Inflation's improving but not yet at target
  • Rate cuts are coming—the timing is the question
  • Keep some inflation hedges in the portfolio
  • Companies with pricing power matter more now
3 / 6
AI Investment
Technology December 8, 2025 20 min read

AI Investing: Separating Hype from Opportunity

The Quick Take

AI is real. The productivity gains are real. But so is the hype. Every company is slapping "AI" on their products. Valuations got stretched. Some of this will work spectacularly. Some will fail. The trick is figuring out which is which.

Where the Money Actually Flows

The Chip Makers

NVIDIA got absurdly rich because they had the right product at the right time. But competition is coming—AMD, Intel, custom chips from the big tech companies. The infrastructure layer is real money right now, but margins won't stay this fat forever.

The Cloud Giants

AWS, Azure, Google Cloud are the picks and shovels of AI. They're growing AI workloads 40%+ annually. These are real businesses making real money. Less exciting than the pure-play AI stocks, but also less likely to blow up.

The Apps and Tools

This is where it gets tricky. Every software company says they're doing AI. Some are genuinely transforming their products. Others are marketing fluff. The ones with unique data—proprietary information that makes their AI better—those have staying power.

Picking Winners

We look for:

  • Actual revenue from AI, not just promises
  • Data moats—something competitors can't easily copy
  • Profitable core businesses (AI R&D isn't cheap)
  • Valuations that don't require everything to go right

What Could Go Wrong

  • The hype cycle: Gartner's "trough of disillusionment" is coming. Some stocks will get crushed even if the technology works.
  • Commoditization: If AI becomes table stakes, nobody earns excess returns
  • Regulation: EU is already moving. Others will follow. Compliance costs money.
  • Power consumption: AI burns electricity. That's a constraint nobody's fully pricing.

Bottom Line

  • Infrastructure plays are the safest bet near-term
  • Data advantages matter more than AI marketing
  • Don't pay any price—valuation still matters
  • The long-term opportunity is massive; the path will be bumpy
4 / 6
Bond Markets
Fixed Income December 5, 2025 14 min read

Bonds Are Back: Making Sense of the New Landscape

The Quick Take

2022 was brutal for bonds. Worst year in decades. But here's the thing: that pain reset yields to levels we haven't seen in years. Bonds are suddenly interesting again—real income, real diversification potential. The boring asset class got its mojo back.

What We're Looking At

The Curve

It's still inverted—short-term rates higher than long-term. That's unusual and it's lasted longer than most predicted. It's the market saying: "Something's going to give, we just don't know when or how."

Duration: How Much Interest Rate Risk?

We're playing both ends—short stuff for income and safety, some longer-dated bonds for the upside when rates eventually fall. Call it a barbell. Don't go all-in on either.

Where to Fish

  • Corporate bonds: Spreads are tight, but 5-6% yields on quality companies? That's real money.
  • High yield: Higher risk, but defaults are still low. Be picky—not all junk is created equal.
  • Munis: If you're in a high tax bracket, the after-tax yield can be excellent
  • Mortgage bonds: Spreads got wide. They don't have to narrow for you to earn a good return.
  • TIPS: Insurance against inflation coming back. Not exciting, but prudent.

How We'd Build It

60% core: Investment grade and Treasuries—the foundation

25% income boost: High yield and preferreds—where the yield is

15% diversifiers: TIPS, munis, maybe some international

What to Watch

Credit spreads don't have much cushion. If the economy slows more than expected, corporate bonds could get hit. And government debt keeps piling up everywhere—at some point, that matters for long-term rates.

Bottom Line

  • Yields make bonds attractive again after the 2022 reset
  • Don't bet everything on rates going one direction
  • Credit quality matters more as the cycle ages
  • Diversify across bond types—they don't all move together
5 / 6
Commercial Real Estate
Real Estate December 1, 2025 16 min read

Commercial Real Estate: Crisis or Opportunity?

The Quick Take

Headlines say CRE is in crisis. That's half true. Office buildings? Yeah, some of those are in trouble. But industrial, data centers, apartments—those are doing fine or better. Real estate is always local and always specific. The broad brush misses the picture.

The Sector-by-Sector Reality

Office: The Problem Child

Hybrid work isn't going away. Companies are giving back space. Trophy towers in Manhattan? Doing okay. That 1980s building in a suburban office park? Good luck. Vacancy is up, rents are down, and some buildings will never fully recover. Conversions to apartments are happening—slowly, expensively.

Industrial: The Workhorse

E-commerce keeps growing. Companies want stuff closer to customers. Warehouses near population centers are gold. Yes, there's new construction. But demand has absorbed it. Rent growth is slowing but still positive. This is the safe play in real estate.

Apartments: Solid With Caveats

Housing's unaffordable, which is bad for society but good for apartment landlords. Demand's strong. But new supply is hitting some markets hard—Austin, Phoenix, Nashville have a lot of units coming. National numbers look fine; local markets vary wildly.

Data Centers: The Boom

AI needs computing power. Computing power needs buildings with electricity and cooling. Data center demand is off the charts. Finding power capacity is the constraint. If you can build one, you can fill it.

The Opportunity Angle

  • Price reset: Higher rates pushed cap rates up. Entry points are better than two years ago.
  • Distress coming: Office loans are maturing. Some owners will walk. Vultures will feast.
  • Public vs private gap: REITs repriced fast. Private values are still catching up. That gap creates opportunities.
  • Sunbelt still works: People keep moving south. Demand follows.

What We Think

Broad CRE exposure is risky because of office. Targeted plays are interesting. Industrial for stability. Data centers for growth. Distressed office for the brave with long horizons. Know what you own.

Bottom Line

  • Industrial and data centers are the places to be
  • Office distress = opportunity for specialists
  • Higher rates made entry points better
  • Be specific—sector and location matter enormously
6 / 6